The FORECAST model has been extended by an approach to capture technological myopia

12.08.2016

A recently published dissertation describes the extension of the FORECAST model to enable a scenario analysis for the German residential sector under the consideration of declining technological knowledge.

This thesis deals with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time, and the resulting limitation of techno-economic energy demand models to anticipate the future demand for energy in the context of long-term scenarios. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no methodological solution has been developed. This thesis is the first to develop a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation economics) to address this limitation. Applying the developed concept to a practical question – energy scenarios for the German household sector until 2050 – shows that integrating the decline of technological knowledge leads to interesting new insights.

Publication:

• Elsland, R.: Long-term energy demand in the German residential sector – Development of an integrated modeling concept to capturetechnological myopia. Dissertation, Karlsruhe Institute for Technology. Baden-Baden, NOMOS-Verlag, 2016