Analysis of GB’s future electricity demand: challenging National Grid’s estimates

27.10.2016

Energy Systems Conference 2016

Long-term projections of electricity demand and peak load represent a major prerequisite for planning future electricity systems. National Grid (NG) as Great Britain’s major transmission system operator annually publishes the “Future Energy Scenarios”, an estimate of Great Britain’s demand evolution until 2035.

This poster, presented at the Energy Systems Conference 2016: 21st Century Challenges at the QEII Centre, Westminster, London ( United Kingdom ),  uses data published by National Grid for a sector overarching bottom-up analysis to benchmark the outcomes of the FORECAST/eLOAD model system with those of NG’s Consumer Power scenario.  

A comparison of results showed that the overall  FORECAST bottom-up annual final electricity demand projection does not strongly differ to NG’s projections. However, major structural differences in the composition of electricity demand have been observed between the two approaches. FORECAST results and statistics show a structural break of electricity demand since 2005 in the British residential sector, which has been caused by a decoupling of activity drivers and electricity demand (e.g. more ambitious autonomous efficiency improvement; recent past: ecodesign directive, lighting).

Poster: Analysis of GB’s future electricity demand: challenging National Grid’s estimates