FORECAST/eLOAD

 
 

 Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

 
 

Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies

 
 

      TEP Energy GMBH

Project to analyse supply security in southern Germany has started

20.02.2017

A current research project analyses the impacts on supply security in southern Germany of decarbonising the power sector

Based on ambitious European and national climate targets, Germany is currently in the process of restructuring its energy supply. The impacts of large-scale decarbonisation of the power sector are being analysed in the research project “Decarbonising the energy system by increasing the use of renewable electricity in heating, transport and industry and simultaneously phasing out power stations – impacts on the security of supply in southern Germany (DESK)” (in German: Dekarbonisierung des Energiesystems durch verstärkten Einsatz erneuerbaren Stroms im Wärme-, Verkehrs- und Industriesektor bei gleichzeitigen Stilllegungen von Kraftwerken – Auswirkungen auf die Versorgungssicherheit in Süddeutschland (DESK)). The background to the study is that the main renewable power generation hotspots are located in northern Germany but the main demand centres are in the south. The study takes into account possible bottlenecks in the German transmission network and developments in the rest of Europe. The long-term development of electricity demand is calculated in DESK using FORECAST. The development of the load and possible options to increase load flexibility are analysed in eLOAD at NUTS-3 level. The results are then used as input in two other energy-economic models that analyse the development of the European power generation system. Assessments of the security of supply in southern Germany are made on this basis and recommendations for action derived.

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