The Shape of Future Electricity Demand: Exploring Load Curves in 2050s Germany and Britain

19.10.2015

The eLOAD model was recently used to assess the evolution of hourly load curves in Germany and Great Britain until the year 2050. The same exercise was performed by the DESSTinEE model to benchmark the results from eLOAD. Both models come to very similar conclusions.

National demand for electricity follows a regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is set to change due to efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat and transport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well understood: contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will retain their current shape, scaling equally in all hours. Changes to this shape will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasing the requirements for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and profitability. This paper explores the evolution of load curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countries undergoing radically different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe’s electricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly load curves: eLOAD and DESSTinEE. Both models are applied to a decarbonisation scenario for 2050, and consistently show peak loads increasing by about 23% points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GW in Germany and 92 GW in Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heat pumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand. The paper was published in Energy.

Download paper here: The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain