Excess heat from energy-intensive industries is often suitable for use in district heating systems but is usually unutilized. A detailed overview of the potentials available in the EU is now provided by a database of the sEEnergies project. In Germany, 29 petajoules of excess heat from industrial sites could be used, which corresponds to the demand of more than half a million households. The information is available as maps and downloadable datasets.
The eLOAD model was recently used to assess the evolution of hourly load curves in Germany and Great Britain until the year 2050. The same exercise was performed by the DESSTinEE model to benchmark the results from eLOAD. Both models come to very similar conclusions.
National demand for electricity follows a
regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is set to change due to
efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat and
transport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well
understood: contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will
retain their current shape, scaling equally in all hours. Changes to this shape
will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasing the requirements
for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and
This paper explores the evolution of load
curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countries undergoing radically
different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe’s
electricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly
load curves: eLOAD and DESSTinEE. Both models are applied to a decarbonisation
scenario for 2050, and consistently show peak loads increasing by about 23%
points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GW in Germany and 92 GW in
Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heat
pumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand.
The paper was published in Energy.