FORECAST/eLOAD

  • 07.08.2020  Industrial excess heat for district heating: Database shows great potential for supplying households

    Excess heat from energy-intensive industries is often suitable for use in district heating systems but is usually unutilized. A detailed overview of the potentials available in the EU is now provided by a database of the sEEnergies project. In Germany, 29 petajoules of excess heat from industrial sites could be used, which corresponds to the demand of more than half a million households. The information is available as maps and downloadable datasets.

 
 

 Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

 
 

Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies

 
 

      TEP Energy GMBH

The Shape of Future Electricity Demand: Exploring Load Curves in 2050s Germany and Britain

19.10.2015

The eLOAD model was recently used to assess the evolution of hourly load curves in Germany and Great Britain until the year 2050. The same exercise was performed by the DESSTinEE model to benchmark the results from eLOAD. Both models come to very similar conclusions.

National demand for electricity follows a regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is set to change due to efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat and transport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well understood: contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will retain their current shape, scaling equally in all hours. Changes to this shape will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasing the requirements for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and profitability. This paper explores the evolution of load curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countries undergoing radically different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe’s electricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly load curves: eLOAD and DESSTinEE. Both models are applied to a decarbonisation scenario for 2050, and consistently show peak loads increasing by about 23% points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GW in Germany and 92 GW in Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heat pumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand. The paper was published in Energy.

Download paper here: The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain

Comparison of the average weekday load curves projected by eLOAD and DESSTinEE for 2010 and 2050
Comparison of the average weekday load curves projected by eLOAD and DESSTinEE for 2010 and 2050

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