Successful FORECAST/eLOAD workshop held in Rio de Janeiro

12.02.2016

Together with a team from the Catholique University of Rio de Janeiro, we used the FORECAST and eLOAD models to assess the future evolution of electricity demand in Brazil up to the year 2050. After two years of data collection, model calibration and training, the one-week workshop marked a major milestone: designing scenarios for the residential, services and industry sectors in Brazil.

Project results are expected by summer 2016 and will contain the first comprehensive bottom-up scenarios for long-term electricity demand in Brazil. The scenarios will consider the effect of energy efficiency policy measures and allow an hourly disaggregation of electricity demand. Thermal power plants based on coal and gas have become increasingly important in Brazil due to the decreasing share of hydropower in electricity generation as the result of frequent droughts in recent years causing empty reservoirs. At the same time, electricity demand is still rising at about 5% per year. New generation capacity consists mostly of coal and gas-fired power plants. Improved energy efficiency and demand-side management are two options to reduce costs and CO 2 emissions in the future electricity system.