FORECAST applied to countries in transition: A case study of Brazil by region

08.07.2020

Together with modelers from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, the FORECAST modeling team analyzed the long-term impact of energy efficiency policies on electricity consumption in Brazil’s residential sector.

In this study, we forecast residential electricity consumption in Brazil considering the variability in consumption behavior in different regions. We used a bottom-up approach to estimate long-term electricity consumption in three technology-driven scenarios: a reference efficiency development, one based on the Brazilian government’s predictions, and the third assuming high efficiency. This study is the first to use a bottom-up approach to forecast the residential electricity consumption by region and by technology-based scenarios in Brazil.

The results show an overall increase of residential electricity consumption due to the increasing appliance ownership rate, especially air conditioning, as well as the increasing number of households. In addition, they show that 96 TWh of electricity could be saved in the highest efficiency scenario. Further, the results indicate that the southeast of the country has the highest potential for consumption reduction by up to 27%.

The methodological approach and the key findings are published in Maçaira, P., Elsland, R. et al. (2020): Forecasting residential electricity consumption: a bottom-up approach for Brazil by region, Energy Efficiency, Springer, DOI 10.1007/s12053-020-09860-w.