The FORECAST and eLOAD models are being used for the future grid expansion plans of transmission network operators

02.02.2017

Electricity grid development plan 2030: Study of Fraunhofer ISI explores how regional electricity demand and load will develop in Germany

The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI is analysing how regional electricity demand and load will develop until 2035 in a new expert report accompanying the electricity grid development plan 2030. The study on behalf of the German Transmission Network Operators provides an essential foundation for analysing future grid utilization situations as well as the necessary requirements in the transmission network. The main finding is that the regional distribution of electricity demand will change fundamentally in the future. While there is a more or less constant development or increase in the demand for power in urban regions and their neighbouring districts, several rural regions experience some sharper declines in electricity demand. Analysing the future load development reveals that electricity loads in the future will fluctuate more strongly than has been the case so far due to the diffusion of emerging technologies. A major insight in this context is that the peak load could increase by more than 50% by 2030 in dynamically growing regions. In addition, the study shows that the height of the peak load partially increases disproportionately or even runs counter to the development of electricity demand.

Publication

Elsland, Rainer; Boßmann, Tobias; Klingler, Anna-Lena; Herbst, Andrea, Klobasa, Marian; Wietschel, Martin (2017): Netzentwicklungsplan Strom. Entwicklung der regionalen Stromnachfrage und Lastprofile. Studie im Auftrag der Deutschen Übertragungsnetzbetreiber, Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI