On behalf of the EU Commission, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI together with ICF Consulting Services Limited explored the contribution that individual technologies can make to decarbonizing industry and the possible paths that lead to this by 2050.
How can we model the perceived value of energy carriers in different industries? A new peer-reviewed publication on the FORECAST methodology shows how.
In this recent publication, the authors explore the issue of inter-fuel substitution in industrial processes and how to model energy carrier preferences in industry. They apply a discrete-choice approach to derive parameters describing energy carrier choice. The results show that the model substantially improves estimates of energy carrier shares (compared to the assumption of constant shares), with an average coefficient of determination of .45 (comparison of selected examples below). There are several distinct energy carrier preferences at the level of countries as well as individual subsectors. At the same time, differences are observed in the economic perception of energy carriers (e.g. coal and biomass).
Alongside a description of the model methodology, the authors present a full set of parameters as supplementary data for the EU28 and all industrial subsectors in the Eurostat energy balance.
The complete paper is available here:
Rehfeldt, Matthias; Fleiter, Tobias; Worrell, Ernst (2018): Inter-fuel substitution in European industry. A random utility approach on industrial heat demand. In: Journal of Cleaner Production 187, S. 98–110. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.179.