The article, based on findings of research done by Till Gnann, Anna-Lena Klingler and Matthias Kühnbach from Fraunhofer ISI, is available now.
In the context of an energy system analysis of Germany and its neighboring countries, the scenario results of FORECAST and eLOAD were presented at the Ministry of the Environment, Climate Protection and the Energy Sector Baden-Württemberg on 04.06.2018 in Stuttgart.
The aim of this project was to analyze the impacts of regional, national and international climate protection targets on the electricity sector and on the security of supply. Decarbonisation of the heat, transport and industry sector implies increasing electrification and substitution of processes as well as ambitious efficiency gains.
The results of the bottom-up modeling conducted in FORECAST show rising electricity demand from the year 2030. By 2050, new technologies like heat pumps and electric mobility contribute 30% to the electricity demand of all sectors. Assessing electricity demand with a high spatial and temporal resolution revealed structural differences among German regions and new system load patterns. The eLOAD model showed that a shift in the peak load from 2030 is mainly due to electric vehicles charging in the evening and necessitates demand-side management. Coupling these results with electricity supply models proved the security of supply could be upheld provided that the European electricity grids are developed as planned.