FORECAST/eLOAD

 
 

 Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

 
 

Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies

 
 

      TEP Energy GMBH

New FORECAST scenarios show: Deep decarbonization of industry is possible with innovations

22.03.2019

On behalf of the EU Commission, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI together with ICF Consulting Services Limited explored the contribution that individual technologies can make to decarbonizing industry and the possible paths that lead to this by 2050.

Industrial electricity demand in final energy by scenario (EU-28) incl. production of feedstocks, clean gas and hydrogen
Industrial electricity demand in final energy by scenario (EU-28) incl. production of feedstocks, clean gas and hydrogen

The study “Industrial Innovation: Pathways to deep decarbonization of Industry” focused in particular on the industrial production of basic materials like steel, cement, ethylene, ammonia and glass: These account for the majority of industrial emissions and are simultaneously especially difficult to decarbonize.

The researchers used the FORECAST simulation model developed by Fraunhofer ISI that has a high resolution of technologies and calculated eight alternative scenarios. The results show that the greenhouse gas emissions of industry could be reduced by 80 to 95 percent by 2050 compared to 1990. Most scenarios show a dramatically increasing electricity demand as the result of electrification and the use of hydrogen or synthetic methane produced from renewable energies via electrolysis.

The report and a detailed data annex are available at the project website

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